Seasonal Picks

What this tab finds

Seasonal Picks answers one question: in past years, which stocks usually rose during this calendar month, and by how much? It takes every stock in the universe you have picked at the top of the page (Nifty 200 unless you changed it), looks up how each one did in the chosen month in every past year on record, and ranks them.

It opens on the current month. On 2 Oct 2026 that is October, so the page reads "147 stocks ranked for Oct · Nifty 200 · 10+ years": 196 of the 200 Nifty 200 stocks have October history, and 147 of them have at least 10 Octobers behind them.

• One row per stock, at most 200 rows on screen.
• Ranked by one number you choose (Rank by): average move, how often it rose, average move per unit of risk, average best point in the month, or smallest average dip.
• Only stocks with at least the number of years you set in Min sample (10 by default).
• The left sidebar's filters and search also apply, so you can rank one sector, one price band and so on.
• Clicking a symbol opens that stock's Analysis page with the same month in focus, so you can see every year one by one.

Keep in mind. This is a history finder, not a forecast. A stock that rose in 13 of 14 Octobers can fall this October. Use the list to decide what to study, not what to buy.

How the numbers are worked out

For each stock and each past year, the engine takes the month's daily candles and reduces them to one monthly candle: the open of the first trading day, the highest high, the lowest low and the close of the last trading day. Everything is measured from that first open.

Then the years are combined:

• Avg Close: the plain average of the yearly moves.
• Hit ratio: years that closed up ÷ (years up + years down). A year that closed exactly flat counts in Sample but not in the hit ratio.
• Sample: how many years had a valid October (or whichever month) candle.
• Avg Upside and Avg Drawdown: the averages of the yearly upside and drawdown figures.
• σ (standard deviation): how widely the yearly moves are scattered around the average.

Which years: the window is the last 15 calendar years up to this one (2011 to 2026 on 2 Oct 2026), with 2020 left out because the Covid crash and rebound would distort most months. Prices are adjusted for splits and bonuses. A month that has not finished is not in the published numbers: on 2 Oct 2026 the October figures stop at October 2025, so the most years any stock can show for October is 14.

Tip. Because the average can be pulled up by one or two huge years, always glance at Hit ratio and σ next to it. The Analysis page (click the symbol) also shows the best and worst year.

Reading a row

Each row is one stock's record for the chosen month. Every column header is a link that sorts the table by that column; click it again to flip the order. The ? beside some headers opens a short explanation.

Tip. Avg Upside and Avg Drawdn are averages of each year's extreme, and they did not happen on the same day. A stock can show +17% upside and −4% drawdown even though in a given year it dipped first and rallied later, or the other way round.

The controls at the top

What each Rank by choice means:

• Avg Close %: biggest average move in the month first. Rewards size; can be pulled up by one huge year.
• Hit ratio: most often up first. Rewards consistency; says nothing about how big the moves were.
• Risk-adjusted (mean / stdev): Avg Close divided by σ. Rewards a decent average that does not swing wildly from year to year. RADICO: 11.63 ÷ 10.33 = 1.13.
• Avg Upside: the biggest average high point above the month's open first. Useful if you trade the swing inside the month rather than holding to month end.
• Min Avg Drawdown: the smallest average dip below the month's open first. Useful if you want months that historically did not shake you out early.

Tip. Every setting is in the page address: by= for Rank by, m= for the month (1 to 12), n= for Min sample, sort= and dir= for a header sort, u= for the universe. A link you copy reopens exactly the same view.

The sidebar filters apply here too

The stock list on the left and its Filters button narrow this page as well. Only stocks that pass the sidebar's filters are ranked, and the count above the table drops to match. The sidebar search box narrows it too.

• Company: Sector (pick one or more), market-cap size, F&O only.
• Price: price band, daily range, 52-week position, near a round number.
• Recent trend, Chart setups: trend, inside bars, candlestick patterns, near a price level.
• Seasonality: "Rose in Oct, in at least __% of years" and "Years of history, at least __ years", plus the season and live setups choice.

Keep in mind. The sidebar's Seasonality filters always look at the current calendar month, whatever month you pick in Period. If you set "Rose in Oct in at least 80% of years" and then switch Period to Nov, you get stocks that were strong in October, ranked by their November history.

Min sample on this page and "Years of history" in the sidebar both cut by years; if both are set, the stricter one wins.

Why the number of years matters

A stock that rose in 3 out of 3 Octobers has a 100% hit ratio, and it means almost nothing: three coin tosses can easily come up heads three times. With 10 or more years, a pattern has had to survive different markets: rate hikes, elections, bull runs, sell-offs. That is why Min sample starts at 10Y.

Keep in mind. More years is not automatically better. A company that merged, demerged or changed its business keeps its old price history under the same symbol, so 14 Octobers may partly describe a different company.

The Confidence light

The Confidence column combines three things into one light, using fixed thresholds:

Strong is rare. On 2 Oct 2026 not one Nifty 200 stock was strong for October. Across every published stock and index, only eight October rows were: two stocks in the Nifty 500 (RAMCOCEM and THERMAX), one ETF, and indices such as NIFTYPHARMA and NIFTYMIDCAP100. Most stocks move too much from year to year to pass the σ test.

Keep in mind. Green means the history is consistent. It does not mean this year will follow it.

Opening one stock: the Analysis page

Click any symbol. It opens that stock's Analysis page with the same month in focus. Analysis shows the full year-by-month grid: every year as a row, every month as a column, each cell the month's move, with an Avg row and an up/down count row underneath.

• Four cards for the focus month: Hit ratio (with years up and down and the confidence word), Avg Close, Avg Upside (with the best year) and Avg Drawdown (with the worst year).
• Unit: Percent or Points. Basis: Open (the same as Seasonal Picks) or PrevClose (measured from the previous month's last close, like TradingView). Prices: show the actual high and low.
• Focus ‹ › steps one month at a time. Hover a cell for that year's open, high, low, close and trading days; click it for the daily chart.
• Stock page → opens the stock's own page, where the Chart tab shows its trendlines.

Tip. Analysis can fold today's trading days into the current month, so during October its October card may show one more year (the unfinished 2026) and a slightly different average than the Seasonal Picks row. The Seasonal Picks row only counts finished months.

Scenarios, step by step

1. The biggest average movers this month.

1. Open Seasonal Picks. It opens on this month, ranked by Avg Close %, 10Y minimum.
2. Read the top rows, then check Hit ratio and Confidence beside each.
3. Click a symbol to see its year-by-year history before trusting the average.

2. The most reliable risers (how often, not how much).

1. Set Rank by to Hit ratio.
2. Keep Min sample at 10Y or higher, so a 4-for-4 newcomer cannot top the list.
3. Compare Avg Close: a high hit ratio with a small average means small but regular gains.

3. Good average without wild swings.

1. Set Rank by to Risk-adjusted (mean / stdev).
2. The top rows have the best average per unit of year-to-year scatter.

4. Only stocks with 12 or more years of history.

1. Set Min sample to 12Y.
2. Stocks with 10 or 11 years drop out; the rest keep their order.

5. One sector's seasonal leaders, using the sidebar.

1. Click Filters at the top of the left sidebar.
2. Under Company → Sector, pick Pharma, then click Show (or Apply).
3. Seasonal Picks now ranks only Pharma stocks in your universe. Change Rank by as usual.

Tip. You can also pick a sector universe (Nifty Pharma, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and so on) from the universe box at the top of the site instead of the sector filter.

6. Only stocks that rose in this month at least 80% of the time.

1. Open Filters → Seasonality, type 80 in "Rose in Oct, in at least __% of years", and apply.
2. Keep Rank by on Avg Close % to order those reliable stocks by size of move.

7. Check one stock's month-by-month history.

1. Click the symbol in the table.
2. On Analysis, read down the focus month's column year by year; look for the down years and whether they cluster recently.
3. Use the Focus ‹ › arrows to see the months either side: a strong October after a weak September tells a different story from a stock that is strong all autumn.

8. Combine with Trendline Support: a good October history and price sitting on a monthly trendline.

1. Pick a name from the list, e.g. by Risk-adjusted.
2. Click the symbol, then Stock page → on Analysis, and open the Chart tab. Pick Monthly in the timeframe pills.
3. See whether price is sitting just above a rising support line. The chart guide explains how a 1-month line also shows on the weekly and daily charts.
4. Or go to the Trendline Support tab, which lists stocks sitting on a trendline right now, and look for names that also rank here.

See also: /guide/chart#other-timeframes for reading a monthly line on the weekly and daily charts.

9. Look ahead at next month.

1. Change Period to Nov.
2. The ranking now uses each stock's November history, so you can prepare a watchlist before the month starts.

What this tab does not tell you

• Whether it will happen this year. Past months are history. Results, news, the wider market and the stock's own chart can override any seasonal habit.
• The worst case. There is no worst-year column on this page; the average hides it. Open the stock: the Analysis page's Avg Drawdown card names the worst year for the month (RADICO's October: 2022, −0.2%; SUZLON's: 2024, −16.63%).
• Why. A stock may rise in October because of festive demand, results timing, or pure chance. The tab only counts.
• Intra-month timing. Avg Close is first open to last close. A stock can end the month up after falling hard in the first week; Avg Drawdn gives the average size of that dip, not when it happened.
• Whether the history is still relevant. A company that changed business, merged or was re-rated can carry an old pattern that no longer applies. Recent down years (look on Analysis) deserve extra weight in your judgement.
• Costs and slippage. The numbers are raw price moves.

Keep in mind. Never treat a high rank as a buy signal. Seasonal Picks finds stocks worth studying; it does not predict, and a stock that rose in 13 of 14 Octobers can make this the 2nd down year.

Glossary